MGSurvE (MGSurvE: Mosquito Gene SurveillancE) is a software package created to optimize the distribution of mosquito traps in complex heterogeneous landscapes.

# Model Description

## Migration Matrix

As it was the case for MGDrivE, the movement of mosquitos is modelled as a network of connected sites.

For most cases, calculating the migration probability between sites is calculated with a kernel that is a function of the distance between sites \(\kappa\), and some biological parameters \(\rho\). This time, however, there is an additional masking parameter \(\lambda\) that varies depending on the probability of the individual moving from the point type of the source to the destination site.

\[\alpha(s_i\to s_j)= \kappa(D(s_i\to s_j), \rho_{bio}) * \lambda(\hat{s}_i, \hat{s}_j) * \theta_{j}\]Repeating this process for each point pair, and normalizing the resulting matrix gives us our migration matrix \(\tau\):

\[\tau_{\{s_n,s_n\}} = \begin{Vmatrix} \alpha({s_1\to s_1}) & \alpha({s_1\to s_2}) & ... & \alpha({s_1\to s_{n-1}}) & \alpha({s_1\to s_n}) \\ \alpha({s_2\to s_1}) & \alpha({s_2\to s_2}) & ... & \alpha({s_2\to s_{n-1}}) & \alpha({s_2\to s_n}) \\ \vdots & & \ddots & & \vdots \\ \alpha({s_{n-1}\to s_1}) & \alpha({s_{n-1}\to s_2}) & ... & \alpha({s_{n-1}\to s_{n-1}}) & \alpha({s_{n-1}\to s_n}) \\ \alpha({s_n\to s_1}) & \alpha({s_n\to s_2}) & ... & \alpha({s_n\to s_{n-1}}) & \alpha({s_n\to s_n}) \end{Vmatrix}\]## Migration With Traps

Now, to add traps into the migration equations, we calculate the probability of a mosquito falling into a trap with a trap attractiveness kernel \(\eta\); but this time, as mosquitos can’t escape the traps, and must remain in the same trap for the rest of the simulation, we have three different sections of the matrix:

\[\begin{align*} \delta(s_i\to t_j) &= \hat{\eta}(D(s_i\to t_j), \hat{\rho}_{trap}) * \phi(\hat{s_i}, \hat{t_j}) &\Rightarrow \nu_{\{s_n,t_n\}}\\ \delta(t_i\to s_j || t_i\to t_j |_{i\neq j}) &= 0 &\Rightarrow 0_{\{t_n,s_n\}}\\ \delta(t_i\to t_i) &= 1 &\Rightarrow I_{\{t_n,t_n\}} \end{align*}\]To put these new sections together with the original migration matrix \(\tau\), we assemble the following block matrix \(\chi\):

\[\chi_{\{s_n+t_n, s_n+t_n\}} = \begin{Vmatrix} \tau_{\{s_n,s_n\}} & \nu_{\{s_n,t_n\}} \\ 0_{\{t_n,s_n\}} & I_{\{t_n,t_n\}} \end{Vmatrix}\]## Fitness Function

For the optimization function to work, we need a fitness function (or cost function). In the gene drive context, we’d like to minimize the time it takes for detection of an undesired transgene. To calculate this, I decided to use the Markov fundamental matrix:

\[F_{\{s_n,s_n\}}=(I_{\{s_n,s_n\}}-\chi[\tau_{\{s_n,s_n\}}])^{-1}\]which gives us the number of timesteps it takes for a mosquito to fall into a trap from any initial point in the landscape. Now, to summarize this information into a metric, we can calculate the average maximum time from each one of these sites:

\[\begin{align*} \varphi_{\{s_n\}} &=Max^{j}(F_{\{s_n,s_n\}}(i, j))\\ \phi &= Mean(\varphi_{\{s_n\}}) \end{align*}\]Although other combinations could be used too (average of averages, medians, etcetera).

# Code and Availability

Most of the package revolves around a landscape object exchanging information with the DEAP package. We are providing interfaces to do the calculations or provide overriding values (or functions) with demos and thorough documentation.

MGSurvE can be installed in its current development state from pypi. For more information please have a look at our documentation!